
By Elizabeth Quinn
The report, released on October 11, was commissioned by the office of the Prime Minister of Finland in spring 2022.
The study was led by the Arctic Center of the University of Lapland and involved Gaia Consulting Oy and the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Among the issues the team was asked to examine was the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on international cooperation in the Arctic as well as how it would affect the implementation of Finland’s 2021 Arctic policy strategy.
“In the next six months, things may change again in many ways, but one thing is certain, there will be no return to the reality before the war,” said the authors of the report in English. 85-page summary of the Finnish language. just report.
Arctic cooperation with Russia has stalled
Although Russia still participates in agreements such as the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement, and is a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement, which has implications for the Arctic, the country’s work in forums with other northern countries, long-term sign of peaceful international cooperation in the Arctic. in the last two decades, now it is at a standstill.
“The time for conclusions about the future of the forums has not yet come, but it is getting closer,” the report said.
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Seven western states suspended their participation in the Arctic Council’s work in March in protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying the invasion undermined many of the forum’s founding principals, which include sovereignty and territorial integrity. integrity based on international law.

In June, the Arctic seven said they would continue the forum’s limited work in areas that do not include Russia. (Russia currently holds the forum’s two-year rotating chairmanship and has previously said it will continue the leadership program as planned.)
“These countries have expressed their will to preserve the Arctic Council and are looking for ways to do so through rules of procedure,” the report said. “Norway is preparing to take over the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in spring 2023.
“Maintaining the Arctic Council as a key international intergovernmental forum is important for Finland and many other actors,” the report said.
The Barents Euro-Arctic Council, made up of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the European Commission, also suspended Russia-related activities in March.
“Sustained cooperation in the Barents Euro-Arctic region requires a scenario where trust is restored and multidisciplinary collaboration is truly possible,” the report said. “Such a situation does not appear.”
New security configuration
Russia’s invasion also prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Their applications were approved and the accession protocols for the two countries were signed on July 5. The 30 member countries must now sign the protocols. Turkey and Hungry are the remaining two countries to do so.
Once completed, the new geopolitical configuration of the North, which divides the Arctic between NATO countries and Russia, will place Finland as the easternmost NATO member of the North.

“The growing military capability is likely to create new tensions in the region in the short term,” the report said. “In the longer term, however, achieving a stronger military balance in the Nordic region is likely to raise the threshold for aggression and strengthen the security environment in the region.
“As a member of NATO, Finland can contribute to the policy guidelines of the Russian alliance and the development of NATO relations with Russia and the Arctic dimension.”
The study states that a functional relationship with Russia remains in Finland’s best interest but that Finland must be able to quickly respond to changing circumstances.
“In addition to information related to military activities, we need to know about the state of the natives, the state of the environment, the state of the economy, the state of the administrative regions of Russia and their relationship with Moscow, state of the media, the state of society and others,” the report says.
“Finland must be able to maintain an understanding of the Arctic regions of Russia in the new conditions. The latest information is especially important to ensure climate stability and sustainable
development in the Arctic.”
Negative impact of climate cooperation
Russia’s northern territory includes half of the Arctic and the breakdown of climate cooperation in the North should not be underestimated, the report said.
“Russian institutes can no longer participate in EU research programs; in other networks, almost all academic cooperation with Russia has stopped. While the situation continues, there are gaps in Arctic research that cannot be bridged, because for Russia is about half of the entire Arctic region.
The report’s authors say the effects of the invasion of Ukraine may accelerate Europe’s green transition in the long term, but describe the immediate effects as complex.
“In the short term, the effects are mostly negative, related to, for example, the rapid pressure brought on by the need for self-sufficiency and the supply of raw materials to change the climate.
decisions, for example, about peat harvesting,” the study says.

“In the longer term, the energy crisis may also affect the development of more sustainable production and consumption and the acceleration of low-emission solutions in Arctic countries and around the world.”
Among the conclusions of the report is that the green transition for Finland is not only an environmental matter, but also an important part of the changing geopolitical situation.
“The green transition will be more important at the national level, not only for climate and energy policy but also in terms of security policy and security of supply,” the study said.
“The goals of the green transition should also be clearly reflected in Finland’s Arctic policy.”
This story was posted by the Barents Observer as part of Eye on the Arctic, a collaborative partnership between public and private circumpolar media organizations.