WASHINGTON DC – Herschel Walker, the former American football star who is running for a seat in the US Senate in Georgia, is running a campaign that is strongly against abortion. But he faced controversy after Daily Beast reported on 4 October that he paid for a former girlfriend to have a procedure in 2009. (Herschel denied the report, calling it a “Democrat attack”.)
Until now, Walker was essentially tied in the polls with Senator Raphael Warnock, his Democrat rival. But the controversy does not mean that his campaign will be dismissed. Consider that Walker was also accused of domestic violence and revealed to have three additional children, which he did not acknowledge before the campaign. He lied about everything from his educational background (he claimed for years that he graduated in the top 1 percent from the University of Georgia; in fact, he never graduated) to his professional record (he claimed that running a company with hundreds of employees, which turned out to be just a few). He also lowered expectations for his upcoming debate performance on 14 October by telling reporters he was “not very smart”.
In contrast, his opponent Warnock is a reverend who has championed civil rights for nearly two years as a senator. It is not yet clear whether the abortion allegation will hurt Walker in the polls, but the fact that he has a competitive race is the result of a confluence of factors: some specific to Georgia, and others that are also at play in the midterms election across the US.
“The only reason it’s going anywhere is because of the division of the country,” said Theodore Johnson, a senior director at the non-profit policy organization Brennan Center. Walker is competitive, in other words, simply because of the fact that he is running as a Republican. “Even if you don’t think Walker will make a good senator,” Johnson said, “there’s a belief — a confidence — that he’s going to be a reliable Republican vote. [the Senate minority leader ] Mitch McConnell.” The presidency of Donald Trump, Johnson reminded the New Statesmanproof that some Republicans are willing to overlook a politician’s shortcomings in order to achieve policy gains.
Although Georgia elected Joe Biden for president in 2020 and elected two Democratic senators – Warnock and Jon Ossoff – in a run-off election in early 2021, the state could change or for any party in the midterms. All Democrats who have recently won have done so “narrowly”, pointed out Andra Gillespie, associate professor of political science at Emory College in Atlanta, Georgia. “You can’t use an election cycle as a signal that Georgia is ‘lost,'” Gillespie said. “Sometimes people get a little too excited about what they expect.”
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For others, Walker’s self-admitted lack of intelligence was a drawback.
“Some who may have been white, college-educated voters who had real concerns about Walker’s preparation are now ready to dismiss those concerns,” said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University in Georgia, describing the tightening of the polls. “They want to see a Republican-controlled Senate.” That means some of Walker’s more unique “qualities” as a candidate should be overlooked.
But for others, those qualities are similar, perhaps even attractive. And Walker, in describing himself as less intelligent, will not only try to lower expectations but appeal to a sector of the electorate. “Basically what Walker said was, ‘Warnock is very smart. He’s a preacher. A city slicker,'” Johnson said. the best I can.’” And for some in southern, heavily rural states like Georgia, that’s attractive.
Johnson told the New Statesman he “cannot believe [Walker] say that [he wasn’t that smart] in strength”. Like Walker, Johnson is black, Christian and from the south. “You don’t admit you can’t do the job.”
Yet Walker likely won’t try to appeal to black voters. There may be some speculation, especially in the strategic Republican camp, that Walker will turn away black voters. But “the idea that Walker could do better [with black voters than a white candidate]… ignores the fact that black voters are Democrats”, Gillespie said, adding that Warnock, the Democratic candidate, is also black.
Gillespie also noted that Walker doesn’t seem to be trying particularly hard to court black voters. Walker, for example, says that discussing race and racism is divisive. “Race is important to the community,” Gillespie said. “For Walker to act like racism isn’t a problem… [it is] a recipe for not resonating [with those voters].”
There is one constituency in Georgia whose vote is more uncertain: women, and white women in particular. The Republican position on abortion offers an opportunity to balance the so-called motivation gap – the advantage of the Republicans due to the fact that they currently do not have the White House or any house of Congress.
“I think it has the potential to deter some white, college-educated voters, especially women, who think of themselves as Republicans,” Bullock said. These are the women who can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump but are turning to the Republican Party. The Supreme Court’s decision in June will be overturned Roe v. Wadeas well as the anti-abortion legislation that states around the country have since enacted, will make them think, “‘Wait a minute … it’s not just Trump that I have a problem with,'” Bullock said.
Most Georgians, Bullock believes, want to Roe to prevail. But most Georgians approve of the current state law, which effectively bans abortion after six weeks. “To the extent that Democrats can raise the issue of abortion, it should be heard by the majority of Georgians.” Walker, on the other hand, not only campaigned as an anti-abortion candidate, he also pushed for a nationwide ban on abortion without any exceptions – even in cases of rape or incest. The latest controversy may serve to highlight how deeply Walker’s professed faith in the issue is on voters’ minds.
It’s not just Georgians – white, black, female or male – who are invested in the outcome of this midterm race. Georgia’s two Senate seats give Democrats their majority in 2021. Whichever party wins Georgia will control the Senate – and therefore the country.
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