5 things we learned this year about climate change and what it means for Staten Island

STATEN ISLAND, NY – The Earth has warmed more than 1 degree Celsius since the mid-19th century, a steady increase caused by human-caused emissions that scientists say are causing the effects in the coming decades that has begun to make a presence. .

The mechanisms driving that increase — greenhouse gas emissions primarily from the burning of fossil fuels that then enter the atmosphere — are poorly understood, yet methane and carbon dioxide levels continue to rise even yet it is widely understood that these trends need to be changed drastically to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Staten Island, a coastal community that is no stranger to impacts such as extreme weather and a changing environment, is not immune to these threats.

Advance/SILive.com, through a multi-part series focusing on the local impacts of climate change and the efforts being made to change the course of the planet, explores how the borough can see the transition that fundamentally changes the lives of everyday residents.

Here are five things we learned.

Sea level rise is one of the most pronounced products on a planet that is warming so fast that scientists say the summer ice in the Arctic will almost disappear by 2050.

Twenty years earlier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal gauge near Mariners Harbor expected to experience between 15 and 35 days of high tide. Only seven were recorded in 2020 – more than double the total 20 years ago.

On the East Shore, the changes will be more pronounced. Forecasts predict sea level rise in the United States over the next 30 years equals the rise seen in the last 100.

The analyzes found that neighborhoods devastated by Hurricane Sandy a decade ago may see more daily damage from high-tide flooding and greater risks of dangerous storm surges eventually. of the century.

At Great Kills, for example, high-tide flooding will push Oakwood Beach and flood into inland marshes upstream of Mill Road by 2100, even under optimistic emission scenarios that aim to keep warming under of 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2050.

Despite the dire implications caused by climate change, Scientists note that even if warming is not limited by the promises set out in the international 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, easing every additional tenth of a degree will make a difference.

A recent UN report found that the planet is currently warming by between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees by the end of the century.

However, there are signs of hope.

Alternative energy sources are expanding rapidly, and ambitious goals are aimed at reducing the impact of fossil fuels on energy systems.

While questions remain about how quickly the goals will be reached and how quickly the technology to take actions such as capturing carbon emissions can be improved, the mitigation of impacts in areas that emit energy and their role in quenching the rise in average temperature can be significant.

Higher seas and hotter days pose a major threat to infrastructure important to turn on the lights, take care of the sick on the Island and prevent raw sewage from seeping into the streets.

Con Edison, the city’s energy provider, currently expects about four days a year with temperatures above 95 degrees. That total is predicted to reach 23 days by 2050 – placing a severe burden on the company’s grid.

Heat is currently the deadliest effect of climate change, causing more deaths than weather disasters each year. However, higher temperatures are joined by more intense storms and rising seas as a trio of threats to the borough’s critical infrastructure that must be considered in the coming decades.

Con Edison alone has spent more than $1 billion to secure parts of its energy system in the city, strengthening underground networks and strengthening the stability of utility poles that are at risk of falling. fall during strong winds.

The city Department of the Environment’s Oakwood Beach Wastewater Resource Recovery Facility, which had to run its operations on backup generators during Sandy to keep about 80 million gallons of raw sewage from flowing back into the streets, is under protection to be offered on the East Shore Seawall that runs from Fort Wadsworth to Oakwood Beach.

And after Sandy’s floodwaters came within 100 yards of generators in the basement of Staten Island University Hospital, city-backed efforts helped raise mechanical and electrical infrastructure while strengthening the site’s resilience. .

Stronger storms that unleash torrential rain that overwhelmed New York City’s aging sewer system has been experienced in recent years after the remnants of Hurricane Ida dropped more than three inches of rain in just one hour.

Detailed simulations now allow experts to see how much climate change is affecting individual storms. Recent observations show between a 5% and 15% increase in precipitation totals tied to the warming seen over the past 150 years.

“If I have a storm today, and I put it in a time machine and send it to the year 2075, that storm will produce more rain, all things being equal, than it is now, or if it is. happened 100 years ago,” Colin Zarzycki, an assistant professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State University, previously told Advance/SILive.com.

The reason: Warmer temperatures warm the air particles in Earth’s atmosphere, causing them to hold more moisture than cooler particles. Hurricanes, which are very efficient at condensing all the water vapor from the atmosphere, release that moisture in the form of heavy rain.

United Nations experts said that people under the age of 10 by 2020 are expected to see “almost a fourfold increase in extreme events under 1.5C of global warming, and a fivefold increase under 3C warming.”

Serious and deliberate cuts in global emissions are needed to prevent continued warming, but simpler, more locally based solutions may also prove useful in an environment altered by climate change.

The expansion of Staten Island’s Bluebelt system, a revolutionary network of green infrastructure that uses vast natural areas to relieve pressure on the city’s sewer system during heavy storms, could have many flood mitigation effect, for example.

And when infrastructures like roads are built, the use of porous materials helps capture rainwater that would otherwise run off streets and sidewalks before entering the sewer system. The city has started a program to use the technology.

Deer, known for their widespread presence on Staten Island, are also responsible for damaging the borough’s forests. Managing their population can help the trees stay healthy and continue to provide a cooling effect at the local level, experts said.

Studies have found that Staten Island’s tree canopy is uneven — leaving the North Shore with less positive benefits. Addressing that disproportionate distribution can help minimize the effects.

Strengthening transportation infrastructure on an Island known for its limited travel options will help reduce traffic and reduce Staten Island’s carbon footprint. More consistent bus service, a bike-sharing program and reliable bus routes are among the recommendations made by the experts.

“People will use transit if it’s more reliable, and the government needs to invest to make sure that’s an option especially on an island like Staten Island where we rely on the car and don’t need it anymore,” said Daniel Zarrilli , the city’s former chief climate policy adviser and a Staten Islander.

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